Erick Schonfeld submits: After two straight quarters of annual declines (aka, the Great Ad Recession of 2009), it looks like online advertising revenues stabilized in the third quarter. The combined online advertising revenues of Google (GOOG), Yahoo (YHOO), Microsoft (MSFT), and AOL rose 1.2 percent to $8 billion. While the online advertising industry is not out of the woods yet, it might be stabilizing.Complete Story »

  Trader Mark submits:Wow, I was taken aback by this story in Bloomberg - it's been a great week for quotes. [Walmart Executive: "There are Families Not Eating at the End of the Month"] One theme I was stressing about 5000 posts ago in 2007 was everyone cheers our political leadership when they do nothing... our best hope is they do no more damage and are neutered. Please let them bide their time until they "graduate" from Congress into that multi-million dollar position as a lobbyist. Our expectation level for our "representatives" is so low ... all we hope for is they offset each other; that's what is has come to. (pathetic) That shows you how damaging they are to the country. I was saying back then it had reached a point where not only were (a) our political leaders not helping us nor (b) were they so ineffective as to be neutral to the country's progress, but indeed (c) at that time they had reached the point that they were like tire spikes in the road. Complete Story »

  H.J. Huney submits:In my last article, I laid out a brief case on why I’ve been searching around in the world of small commercial banks. My basic hypothesis is that there are some huge opportunities in that sphere right now, as investor fear is at all-time highs. Contrast that to the rest of the market, which has been on an undeniable bull run over most of the past half year. It’s easy to understand why people are scared of small commercial banks. They are not easy to analyze, the risks are high, earnings look terrible, and since these banks don’t qualify as “too big to fail,” the government isn’t going to come in and rescue them. In fact, the FDIC seems to close down a few banks every single Friday. Complete Story »

  Ron Rowland submits:A few months ago I wrote an article about how the 80-20 rule does not apply to ETFs. When it comes to ETF trading, 92% of the activity is confined to just 8% of the actively listed ETFs. I dubbed it the ETF 92-8 Rule. I received several requests to publish a list of the “vital few”, those 8% of the ETF universe that dominate all trading. Back in April, I divided all the listed ETFs into Liquidity Tiers, based on their average daily value traded (ADVT). Each higher tier represents an order of magnitude improvement in ADVT. I continue to use this method because it results in a bell-shaped distribution, and the use of ADVT overcomes one of the weaknesses of a volume-only approach.Complete Story »

  As we waited for Youbet's (UBET) 3Q09 conference call to begin yesterday, a surprise press release crossed the wire: Churchill Downs Incorporated to Acquire Youbet.com, Inc.For all of the reasons detailed in our prior posts, we didn't expect to see a near-term sale to Churchill Downs (CHDN). That said, YB's results came up short versus our expectations with the economy and other risk factors somewhat derailing our thesis.Complete Story »

  Larry Bellehumeur submits: First, many thanks for the kind words that I received. It has been an awfully long time since my last article, due to opening up a new business. I was reading the article on the “IEA Whistleblower” who claims that the IEA has been intentionally “underplaying” the onset of Peak Oil, and that the likelihood of the world’s Oil Supply keeping up with the upcoming demand is small. Most of this demand will come from the developing world, including countries such as India and China, but also Africa, the Middle East and Latin America.Complete Story »

  Mitul Kotecha submits:The USD index is trading close to a 15-month low and direction remains firmly downwards as risk appetite continues to improve and the USD’s status as a funding currency remains unaltered. Whether it’s a weak USD driving stocks higher or vice-versa, US stocks are currently trading at 13-month highs, maintaining the negative correlation with the USD index.One currency that has failed to take advantage of the weak USD over recent days is EUR/USD and its failure to make a sustainable break above 1.50 highlights that momentum in the currency is fading. EUR/USD looks vulnerable on the downside in the short term, with resistance seen around 1.5050. Speculation that China will resume CNY appreciation has taken some of the steam out of the EUR given that it implies less recycling of intervention flows into the currency. Complete Story »

  Hard Assets Investor submits: So far in 2009, the agriculture markets haven't witnessed the same sharp rebound as other commodities have; in fact, compared to oil or copper, humble ags seem downright sensible. And there's still plenty of room for upside, says Shonda Warner, founder of Chess Capital Partners—that is, if Mother Nature plays along. Ms. Warner is the founder of Chess Ag Full Harvest Partners, an investment firm that focuses on purchasing undervalued farmland in the U.S. With over 20 years' experience in hedge fund environments, she has worked as co-managing director of U.K. based fund-of-funds Montier Partners and as an executive director for Bear Stearns and Goldman Sachs. Complete Story »

  Trader Mark submits:Courtesy of Bespoke Blog, we have the latest update of best-performing stock markets by country (in local currency). Keep in mind the past few days have seen the best performance for emerging markets since July. When last we looked, Peru was in the lead.[May 20, 2009: Year to Date Returns by Country - Go Peru!] since then, Russia has taken the crown. But all the B(razil)R(ussia)I(ndia)C(hina)'s are doing well - gains of 70-126%. G7 countries obviously lagging. Average among all 82 indexes is 33.3%. Still love my Indonesia, although I've been chasing it all year... another missed opportunity. [May 22, 2009: Indonesia: A Must Own Emerging Market] Complete Story »

  The LFB submits:Overall, the dollar index took advantage of the negative equity markets initially took around the world in Thursday morning trade, and managed to advance a few points ahead of the U.S. open. Most of the dollar’s gains came during the European session, after relatively flat Asian currency trade. The macroeconomic calendar was light on Thursday, with the European calendar being clear of any red-flag reports, while the upcoming U.S. sessions holds the U.S. unemployment claims, and Oil Inventory report. Complete Story »

  Jim Gobetz submits: Mr Geithner, speaking to reporters in Japan yesterday made several statements in which he espoused his belief in a strong dollar policy:“I believe deeply that it’s very important for the U.S. and the economic health of the U.S. that we maintain a strong dollar” Mr Geithner said “We bear special responsibility for trying to make sure that we are implementing policy in the U.S. that will sustain confidence not just among American investors and .. savers but investors around the world”Complete Story »

  Lawrence Weinman submits: Perhaps the bubble type activity was on the downside as emerging markets plunged in sympathy with the US and developed markets. The markets were not decoupled but looking at economic performance in the past year, the growth stories seem to be decoupled.Overdone on the upside or just reverting to the long term trend ?Complete Story »

  Jim Delaney submits: Toll Brothers Inc. (TOL) was the belle of the ball yesterday with news of orders surging 42%, cancellations slowing and revenue beating analysts’ estimates. “The improvement in consumer confidence over the past year, the increasing stabilization of home prices, the decline in unsold home inventories and the reduction in buyer cancellation rates suggest that the new home market should be improving. We sense that it is, though slowly,” was how Chairman and Chief Executive Officer Robert Toll put it during the company's earnings conference call yesterday. Were this pre-2007, there might be something to cheer in TOL’s results although as I write that, pre-2007 would probably have to be pre-2000 as Alan Greenspan’s pedal to the metal approach to monetary policy had distorted everything leading up to the bubble bursting almost as much as letting Lehman Brothers (R.I.P.) fail pushed the fear level as high as the bubble had risen, taking the world’s markets to equal but opposite extremes.Complete Story »

  Trader Mark submits:As the United States spends money it doesn't have (much of it borrowed from China ironically) to manipulate housing prices upward, and get its debt-laden consumers to spend with financial handouts, bail out its financial oligarchs and funnel money into states so its public sector employees have no need to make any necessary adjustments to reality, China continues to spend its surplus on "nation building" in return for access to other country's resources. [May 13, 2009: Commodities - It's China's World: We Just Live in It] .I literally could post a story each week as agreements or strategic purchases are made by China; much of the emphasis has been in Africa.... A $9 billion minerals-for-infrastructure deal is presented by Congolese President Joseph Kabila as a cornerstone of his plan to rebuild the Democratic Republic of Congo after years of war. Complete Story »