Trade Radar Operator submits: On Tuesday we saw a BUY signal for Adtran (ADTN) on our Swing Signals list. Back on Tuesday, after checking the chart, it looked to me like the stock was looking quite promising but was coming up against some serious resistance. Now that it's a couple of days later, let's take a look at the chart below and see how things are working out.Complete Story »

  Felix Salmon submits: We all love independent board members of public companies. But can they be too independent? Townsend expressed concern that Massey has been ineffective at building consensus among directors who have proven themselves to be fiercely independent. “That has been an unintended consequence” of April’s shareholder actions, he said.Complete Story »

  Rolfe Winkler, CFA submits: The AOL-Time Warner (TWX) merger was the crowning deal of the new millennium. The spin-off on Thursday of the internet business from Time Warner is an appropriate bookend to a lost decade in the stock market. There may be value left in the online operation, but it won’t be easy for chief executive Tim Armstrong to extract it. When AOL announced it was buying Time Warner 10 days into 2000, the two companies had a $350 billion market value. Today their combined value is just $50 billion, a decline of 86 percent – even worse than the Nasdaq’s 45 percent decline.Complete Story »

  Felix Salmon submits: My colleague Peter Thal Larsen has an interesting take on the numbers associated with the UK banker supertax, and how a 50% tax on a £6 billion bonus pool can generate only £550 million in revenue: The government’s estimate assumes that banks will reduce their bonuses. It is also a net figure – it takes into account that the government will collect less income tax because the bankers will receive lower bonuses.Complete Story »

  Dobromir Stoyanov submits:McCormick & Company (MKC), Incorporated, a specialty food company, engages in the manufacture, marketing, and distribution of flavor products and other specialty food products to the food industry worldwide. It operates in two segments, Consumer and Industrial. The company, which has raised dividends for 23 consecutive years, is a member of the Mergent’s dividend achievers index. Back in November McCormick & Company increased its quarterly dividend by 8.30% to 26 cents per share. Since 1999 this dividend growth stock has delivered an average total return of 10.70% annually.Complete Story »

  A flurry of data indicating that the global recovery is safe in the hands of the Chinese economy helped raise the tone today at the end of a week littered with awkward obstacles. The impact of today’s improved tone has served to weaken demand for dollars and yen. And a soothing affirmation from an executive at ratings agency, Moody’s Investor Services, about the stable prospects for the U.K. and U.S. has scourged the demon from the pound at the end of a difficult week. Complete Story »

  Kurt Wulff (McDep Associates) submits: Analyzing third quarter results released after the market close on November 5, we reaffirm estimated Net Present Value (NPV) of $92 a share for buy-recommended EOG Resources (EOG). On that basis, unlevered appreciation potential is 4% to a McDep Ratio of 1.0 where stock price would equal NPV. Unlevered cash flow (Ebitda) approached our expectations in the latest quarter. After the second quarter low point, the latest quarter looks like the start of a rising trend. Concentration on oil increases to 28% of NPV from 24% three months ago. Oil volume increased 17% in the third quarter over the second quarter and Chairman Mark Papa targets a 50% increase in 2010. Complete Story »

  Michael Panzner - Seeking Alpha Profile Michael J Panzner is a 25 year Wall St veteran with a resume oozing with credentials. Having extensive experiences in global stock, bond, and the currency markets, he has worked for HSBC, Soros Funds, ABN Amro, Dresdner Bank, and J.P. Morgan Chase to name a few. Furthermore, he leveraged his knowledge and published a few notable books: Financial Armageddon, When Giants Fall, and The New Laws of the Stock Market Jungle. Complete Story »

  Mark O'Byrne submits:Gold Gold has been as high as $1,138.50/oz overnight and has consolidated on yesterday's higher close - the first in four trading sessions. Gold is currently trading at $1,138.50/oz and in euro and GBP terms, gold is trading at €772/oz and £698/oz respectively. The dollar is slightly weaker this morning and that is supporting gold. As are concerns about the public finances in many countries internationally (Spain, Greece and the UK in particular). The positive economic data out of China shows the resilience of the Chinese economy and bodes well for physical demand for the Chinese New Year. While economic recovery is gathering pace in China, there are real concerns about deepening inflation. Sovereign debt jitters look set to remain prevalent for the foreseeable future and this should contribute to providing a floor to gold above $1,000/oz. A more positive than expected US Retail Sales number today could see gold come under further liquidation pressure.Complete Story »

  Kurt Wulff (McDep Associates) submits: Analyzing third quarter results filed as Form 10-Q with the Securities and Exchange Commission after the market close on November 5, we reaffirm estimated Net Present Value (NPV) of $27 a unit for buy-recommended Dorchester Minerals (DMLP). On that basis, unlevered appreciation potential is 23% to a McDep Ratio of 1.0 where stock price would equal NPV. Volume, unlevered cash flow (Ebitda), Minerals Net Profits Interest, and earnings per unit were all slightly ahead of estimates from three months ago despite a decline in natural gas price. Futures prices contribute to rising cash flow in the quarters ahead. After lagging real-time price by two months, the cash distribution ought to follow projected cash flow. NPV appears to imply an unusually high multiple of cash flow until we remind ourselves that 80% or more of “Ebitda” is a percentage of revenue from oil and gas production from which no expenses need to be deducted. Complete Story »

  The Energy Report submits:Jennings Capital VP and Senior Oil & Gas Research Analyst Greg Chornoboy shares his take on the prospects for prices in oil and natural gas—and what he sees driving those prices—in this exclusive Energy Report interview. Cap and trade, "a lot of smoke and fire and great rhetoric," isn't on his list. Sharing insights into prospective investments, too, Greg favors large, well-capitalized companies for natural gas, while for oil he leans toward what he calls "embryonic" juniors with overseas properties in politically stable jurisdictions. That's where the size of the potential prize can be tempting. But don't look to them as get-rich-quick schemes, he cautions. "If you're not prepared to wait it out, it's not an appropriate investment." Complete Story »

  Erwan Mahe submits:The Baltic countries In the wake of the events in Dubai and the ensuing surge in worries about sovereign debt -- rightly or wrongly may be viewed as fragile -- investors are now refocusing their attention on the Baltic countries.Complete Story »

  Stephen Yu submits:Since I first wrote about Cloud Peak Energy (CLD) here last week, the stock has retreated about 4%. However, after doing some more research, I am more confident of the company's value.This week, I tried to find out how much investors are paying for each ton of coal reserves at various North American coal miners. To do so, I calculated the enterprise value (EV) to coal reserves ratios (EV / Reserves ) of several miners. A low EV to reserve ratio suggests that a miner is undervalued relative to others with high ratios. Granted, not all coal are the same. Appalachian coal has higher energy content than Powder River Basin coal; and therefore the former is worth more than the latter. To adjust for the difference in energy content, I assumed that 1 ton of the high energy coal is equivalent to 1.5 tons of the low energy kind. After making this adjustment, I found the following EV / Low Energy Reserve ratios:Alpha Natural Resource (ANR): $5.8 per tonArch Coal (ACI): $2.6 per tonConsol Energy (CNX): $3.5 per tonMassey Energy (MEE): $0.9 per tonPeabody (BTU): $1.5 per tonCloud Peak Energy (CLD): $0.9 per tonSo again, CLD looks undervalued. And when you combine this analysis with the PE and EV / EBITDA analysis I presented last week, it is easy to see that CLD stock is worth more than the current $13 a share. Furthermore, as I mentioned previously, CLD will likely be added to coal and energy indexes soon. Lo and behold, the Stowe Global Coal Index announced Wednesday that it will add CLD to its components, effective 6 pm (EST) Sunday, December 20. Once the index adds CLD, the Market Vectors Coal ETF (KOL), which tracks this index, will have to buy CLD, thereby creating demand for the stock. However, note that KOL is a small ETF with under $300 million of asset, and adding CLD to KOL will not generate a large spike. Nonetheless, as the third largest coal miner in the U.S., CLD will likely be added to more energy indexes, and therefore also to more ETFs and ETNs, before too long. Such index action will no doubt lend support to CLD share price.Complete Story »

  Gary Gordon submits: According to BusinessWeek’s prolific blogger, Howard Silverblatt, the long-term dividend growth rate for S&P 500 constituents is 5.6%. His expectation for 2010, however, is dividend increases of 6.1%. Why might this be intriguing? In essence, there’s a simple mathematical equation that has done a better job predicting stock price appreciation over time than… well… just about any formula. What’s more, the economist who developed the predictive proxy happens to share my namesake!Complete Story »