Eric Coffin submits:From the October 2009 HRA Dispatch David Coffin & Eric Coffin, HRA Advisories Mayan Indian elder Apolinario Chile Pixtun has restated his belief that the world is not going to end in 2012. Or more precisely, that his beliefs don’t suggest the world should end despite it being the end of a major cycle in the Mayan calendar. According to China Daily, he is even more emphatic that he’s tired of being asked about it. 2012 is the end of a 5126 year cycle (end of the 13th of 13 Baktun). It also ends a 26800 year cycle that may relate to the Earth’s wobble, which is useful for gauging the drift of seasonal climate changes. China Daily also briefly mentions predictions by 16th century (Christian calendar) French herbalist Nostradamus that is being combined with the Mayan cycles to create buzz for a spate of movies and TV specials. Complete Story »

  Tech Confidential submits: Microsoft Corp.'s (NASDAQ:MSFT) Friday morning earnings announcement on the results of its fiscal 2010 first quarter will cap a jam-packed week for the software maker, following the launch of Windows 7, the opening of its first retail stores, the unveiling a revamped online store that sells PCs and a search deal with Twitter Inc. (Twitter struck a similar deal with leading search engine maker Google Inc. (NASDAQ:GOOG)). Dealmaking milestones in the quarter included finally nailing down a search and advertising deal with Yahoo Inc. (YHOO) after Microsoft's failed attempt to acquire the number two search engine provider last year.Complete Story »

  Edward Harrison submits:We received word today from the British government that GDP in the UK contracted for a record sixth quarter in Q3 2009. I like Neil Hume’s headline on this one, “GDP shock flop.” If you were listening to the BBC’s Wake Up to Money this morning, you would have expected growth. The fact is economists had anticipated growth of 0.2% quarter-on-quarter. Instead, what we got was a contraction of 0.4%. Shock flop indeed.Bloomberg puts the right spin on things:Complete Story »

  Paul Harper submits:While the Chinese economy expanded 8.9% in Q3, propped up by easy credit & continued government spending programmes, Europe, US & Japan continue to flounder. The world’s 3rd largest economy has recorded 7.7% overall growth in the first 9 months of 2009, with officials saying they are confident that the much talked about annual growth target of 8% will be achieved.Last November, as it became clear that the global economy was heading into a recessionary period, central government implemented a 4 Trillion yuan/$586 Bn stimulus package, aimed at cushioning the blow of decreasing exports on the economy whilst also improving industrial efficiency at all levels. Via this stimulus package, China has implemented a number of schemes that impact practically all sectors in the economy; real estate/construction, transportation infrastructure, agriculture, social services, industry, earthquake reconstruction, technology advancement and rural development being amongst those receiving special focus.Complete Story »

  IndexUniverse submits: By Dave NadigDr. Nouriel Roubini, professor of economics and international business at the Stern School of Business at NYU and chairman of RGE Monitor, is perhaps best known for his prescient predictions of the financial market collapse in 2005.Complete Story »

  Mark O'Byrne submits:Gold Gold closed Friday night trading at $1,058.70/oz. In euro and GBP terms gold is trading at €704.55/oz and £642/oz. Gold looks set for its fourth week of gains (if it can remain above $1,053/oz) and this would be bullish technically. While fears about the Chinese economy may have led to some profit taking in gold yesterday, the news that China is now a net importer of gold and looks set to be a net importer for the foreseeable future is very favourable to gold’s medium and long term fundamentals. China imported 112 metric tonnes of gold in 2008 and the rise in net imports was driven by a significant 176% growth in investment demand for the yellow metal, which hit 68 tons, and 21% growth in jewelry demand to 326 tonnes. With gold ownership banned in mainland China for most of the 20th Century, China is now playing catch up and in time may become as important a driver of demand as India is. Per capita consumption of gold in China is a fraction of that of India but this is set to change in the coming years, especially as the Chinese government is encouraging its citizens to save in gold and silver bullion on state television in order to foster a culture of saving and contain domestic inflation. Chinese savers now have access to gold-linked checking accounts.Complete Story »

  Streetwise Blog submits: The European Commission released its “Communication to a Cast of Thousands” on “Ensuring efficient, safe and sound derivatives markets: Future Policy Actions.” It is, at best, a series of policy proposals based on nothing more than assertions delivered from on high. These assertions are both logically dubious and completely empirically unsupported. The main policy recommendations are to force the bulk of derivatives trades into centrally cleared platforms and exchange trading. This will be accomplished by margin and capital requirements, and mandates.Complete Story »

  Just as important as deciding to go long natural gas is how that view is translated into an investing strategy. The value chain of the natural gas industry, shown below (Source: Wikinvest), provides a good overview. There are numerous investment opportunities throughout the value chain that can be capitalized upon. Complete Story »

  Elias Tsepouridis submits: As my portfolio is 100% cash from the recent trade of the BARE Covered Call, I was on the hunt for the next investment. I was able to uncover this next hidden gem by running my value scorecard screen, to find out this stock passes the majority of my value stock metrics.EZCORP Inc. (EZPW) acquires, establishes, and operates pawnshops and credit services shops. These shops function as sources of consumer credit and as value-oriented specialty retailers, primarily selling previously owned merchandise. The company makes non-recourse loans secured by pledges of tangible personal property, and imposes a pawn service charge as compensation. This charge is calculated on the dollar amount and duration of the loan. The company operates more than 280 pawnshops and 334 payday loan stores.Complete Story »

  In the last year, many analysts and investors have focused on China as the driver for global economic recovery. Actually, there are countries other than China that are experiencing significant economic growth, contributing to the global recovery. Many Asian countries and a few in South America are showing the world the way. The growth of these countries offers important export opportunities for the U.S. In 2000, foreign business amounted to about 30% of the revenue for the S&P 500. Now it is up to approximately 50%. Within the S&P 500, this trend is even more noticeable as many technology, materials, energy, and industrials generate more than 60% of their revenues internationally. Companies such as FreePort McMoran (FCX), Accenture (ACN), Cisco (CSCO), EMC, Microsoft (MSFT), IBM, Chevron (CVX), Boeing (BA), Caterpillar (CAT), Joy Global (JOYG), Flowserve (FLS) and even Apple (AAPL) are seeing the affect of this global growth trend.ChinaDepending on whom you believe China’s growth in the third quarter of 2009 will come in from 8.5 to 9.5%. This is up from 7.9 percent in the second quarter and 7.1 percent for the first half of 2009. The Asian development Bank projects China’s growth at 9.5 to 9 percent. Goldman Sachs expects growth to come in closer to 9.5 percent. China is growing rapidly and the country has returned to the levels it reached before the global recession. There are other signs that China continues to grow. According to China National Energy Administration, China's power consumption in September also continued to rise at a faster rate. Power consumption rose 10.24 percent from the same month last year to 322.41 billion kilowatt hours last month. The General Administration of Customs, China's foreign trade continued to fall in September, but the rate of decline slowed. The total value of imports and exports for September was 218.94 billion U.S. dollars, down 10.1 percent from the same month last year, but up 14.2 percent from August. We know that China uses different ways to measure their economic performance, to these numbers do not necessarily translate into equivalent measures in other countries. However, the fact that China is growing rapidly cannot be ignored.India and the Rest of AsiaIndia is another rapid growth story. Growth in gross domestic product rose to 6.1 percent from a year earlier in the April-June quarter up from 5.8 percent in the previous quarter according to the government's Central Statistical Organisation. India is not nearly as dependent on exports as China, which helps the country to weather the global economic troubles. The biggest current threat for India is the lack of rain for their agriculture sector. A drought will negatively affect the economy over the next half year, as declining agricultural output reduces demand for transportation and storage. This will hinder exports and domestic trade while lowering the income for hundreds of millions of Indians who rely on farming for their livelihoods. Agriculture accounted for 6.3 percent of India's GDP from April-June. The problem is 65 percent of the population depend on farming as their main source of income, according to Citigroup.Monsoon rains from June 1 through August 19 are 26 percent below normal, according to the Ministry of Agriculture, and a drought has been declared in at least 44 percent of India's districts. Growth of agriculture and related industries slowed to 2.4 percent during the April-June quarter, down from 3.0 percent that same period last year, the Central Statistical Organization said.Longer term India will continue to expand in the mid to high single digit rates as they take advantage of their growing pool of educated workers. Much like China, this growth is creating a large and expaning middle class that wants a better life. Other Asian countries are experiencing economic growth as well. Australia raised their key lending rate to help address the prospect of inflation as their economy expands. Indonesia has maintained positive economic growth throughout the global recession. This is going unnoticed as most analysts focus on the other countries in Asia. Each of these countries offers opportunities for the U.S. export business.BrazilSouth America with Brazil leading the way is another source of global economic growth. While winning the 2016 summer Olympics is in the headlines, Brazil is experiencing a continuation of its economic resurgence. Exports of commodities to China are the primary driver. However, the country’s manufacturing sector is recovering as well. As a leading producer of ethanol, Brazil can become an energy exporter, exploiting the growing interest in biofuels. When its oil wells come online, they can translate much more quickly into exports and revenue generation. If Brazil follows through on plans to construct a petrochemical industry around its oil extraction, the country will find itself with a value-added industry that will further contribute to its development.The Bottom LineEach of these countries cannot on their own be the driver for export growth for the U.S. Combined they offer good prospects, especially if the value of the U.S. dollar remains weak.Investors that focus only on the U.S. will miss the underlying affect of the global growth story. Under estimating the strength of this global trend on the profits of companies will be a mistake.Rather than look to the U.S. as the source for growth, we need to identify companies that receive more than half of their revenues from foreign sources, as they offer the best opportunities. We will see further separation of many companies from dependence on the U.S. economy, especially retail sales.Companies that are aligned with the growth of the global economy will see stronger earnings that should continue to grow for years to come. Multi-nationals as well as small and mid size firms who are aligned with the global growth trends will benefit. Whereas companies that remain focused on the domestic U.S. markets and depend on U.S. GDP growth will suffer.Complete Story »

  Gary Gordon submits: Culturally, the Japanese place such a strong emphasis on scholastic achievement…failure is simply not an option. So it’s not a big surprise to learn that Japan has the highest suicide rate of any industrialized nation. On the other hand, how does one explain the next country in line… France. Doesn’t France shower its citizens with generous public health care? Don’t employees enjoy extraordinary job protection rules? And doesn’t the world at large envy the French for their easy-going enjoyment of life?Complete Story »

  Gary Gordon submits: I’ve written a number of features on “money flow” in the recent past, incorporating daily data at the Wall Street Journal and/or weekly directionality reported by the research firm EPFR Global. In fact, one month ago, I identified the enormous amount of money that was “flowing” into emerging market equities and emerging market bonds. Four weeks has since elapsed. And, in spite of the psychological Dow 10,000 “victory,” EPFR Global reports that net assets have actually been leaving U.S. equities. Meanwhile, money market funds have not been the beneficiaries of the reported outflow.Complete Story »

  David Hunkar submits: The U.S. personal savings rate has been going up since last year and in the second quarter of this year reached nearly 5% of disposable personal income. But how about Government and Corporate savings? The interesting chart below shows historical data for Corporate, Government and Personal savings from 1940 through 2008:Complete Story »

  Macro Man submits: When market punters chat to each other, which they often do, the conversation almost inevitably opens with some variant of "So how you getting on?" The typical response bears a striking resemblance to that of high-level amateur athletes. When you ask somebody, for example, how well they ski, it seems that the best skiers almost always reply with "oh, I'm OK." In Macro Man's experience, people who reply "yeah, I'm pretty good" generally are not. (By way of disclaimer, Macro Man was a "yeah I'm OK" guy before he came a-cropper.)Complete Story »