Fed’s Vice-Chair Donald Kohn sees no asset bubbles – I say, take off the rose colored glasses and get a Seeing Eye dog. Look at the charts for gold, copper and equities, and for the dollar index. For the Dollar Index there is a potential Weekly Key Reversal. The dollar reached a new low for the move on Monday at 74.75. A close this week above last week’s high of 75.88 defines a weekly key reversal. A Weekly Key Reversal followed by two weeks of higher closes confirms a dollar bottom. Complete Story »
While the dollar managed to bully everything else lower on Tuesday especially after risk was discouraged by a poor showing from a gauge of homebuilders’ confidence, today it is once again on the defensive. The euro’s recovery has lifted it to a session high of $1.4972 ahead of Wednesday’s key homebuilding and consumer price reports. Ironically, analysts are seeking a boost to new home starts driven largely by government tax credits. If the data can carry the weight of expectations, it’s likely to be dollar negative and euro positive, which means we might finally see another assault on the $1.50 area. Having tested the upside for the dollar it will now be no surprise to see the euro test its upside potential for the remainder of the week. Complete Story »
Jim Delaney submits: “Grave Dancer” sounds like something that would be air-brushed onto the tank of a ’54 Pan-head chopper or maybe even tattooed on the arm of the guy riding it, or maybe engraved on the handle of some famous outlaw’s pistol. The point is the term seems to conjure mythic proportions to wherever it might be attached to or inscribed on and when it comes to real-estate investing, that it was long used, as Sam Zell’s moniker makes the point that much clearer. Mr. Zell is by no means an outlaw of any kind and from what I’ve read his taste in motorcycles is more towards racing bikes. But when you’ve picked as many real-estate market bottoms (and tops) and plucked prime pieces of property for pennies on the dollar, the universe tends to recognize talent and bestows on you a title to show its appreciation for your hard work.Complete Story »
John Jansen submits: Prices of Treasury coupon securities have sagged in overnight trading. As far as I can tell there was no piece of news or data which moved the market lower. Equity markets in Asia declined modestly while European markets are posting modest gains. The last time I looked it appeared the US equities would open with very small gains.Complete Story »
The Macro Trader submits: We keep hearing that long term Treasury Bonds are going to tank and that we need to get short before they fall off a cliff. While this may very well happen, we doubt that it occurs anytime soon. We are not alone in this view as Bill Gross and the gang at PIMCO seem to agree. While some argue with his view of a new slow growth period the market does not seem to have an issue with it. Not only has Helicopter Ben said that the Fed is not raising rates anytime soon, but market indicators are saying the same thing. One Treasury indicator that we use is the MOVE index which is a “yield curve weighted index of the normalized implied volatility on 1-month Treasury options. It is the weighted average of volatilities on the CT2, CT5, CT10, and CT30.” As you can see in the chart below (click to enlarge) it has been falling since July as the market has come to the realization that we are in for a slow growth period and that the Fed is not going to raise rates any time soon. Complete Story »
Andy Beal submits: What is it with airlines?If they’re not breaking guitars, their pilots are missing airports, or they’re berating people that are trying to help them.Complete Story »
David I. Templeton submits: Sysco Corp. (SYY) announced the company is increasing its fiscal 3rd quarter 2010 dividend by 4.17% to 25 cents per share. This compares to 24 cents per share paid in the same quarter last year. The company has increased its dividend in each of the 40 years it has been trading as a public company.The estimated payout ratio will equal 48% based on 6/2010 estimated earnings of $1.89. This compares to the 5-year average payout ratio of approximately 53%.The company carries an S&P Earnings & Dividend Quality Ranking of A+.Author's Disclosure: Long SYYComplete Story »
David I. Templeton submits: Catching up after some dividend increases this week. Intel (INTC) On Monday, Intel Corp. announced the company is increasing its 1st quarter 2010 dividend by 12.5% to 15.75 cents per share. This is Intel's first quarterly dividend increase since the second quarter of 2008 when the company increased the quarterly dividend to 14 cents per share. The estimated payout ratio will equal 43% based on 12/2010 estimated earnings of $1.46. This compares to the 5-year average payout ratio of approximately 36%. The company carries an S&P Earnings & Dividend Quality Ranking of B+. Complete Story »
Market Folly submits:This is the third quarter 2009 edition of our hedge fund portfolio tracking series. If you're unfamiliar with tracking hedge fund movements or SEC filings, check out our series preface on hedge fund 13F filings.Complete Story »
If it wasn't clear already that John Paulson had reached the zenith of his hedge fund profession, one only had to watch how fervently the media and blogosphere digested the news of Paulson & Co.'s quarterly holdings which was released last Friday.Market commentators immediately pounced on how the one-time housing bear had loaded up on 300 million shares in Citigroup (C) during the quarter, while dumping his entire holdings in Goldman Sachs (GS).Complete Story »
Greentech Media submits: By Jeff St. JohnThe Chevrolet Volt, General Motors' showcase plug-in hybrid car, is still set to start rolling out of factories in November 2010, despite losing $1.2 billion in its most recent quarter.Complete Story »
Dana Gardner submits:You have to know when to hold them, and when to fold them. That's the (not just) slightly smug assessment by IBM executives as they reflect -- with twinkles in their eyes -- on the months-stalled Oracle (ORCL) acquisition of Sun Microsystems (JAVA), a deal that IBM initially sought but then declined earlier this year.Chatting over drinks at the end of day one of the Software Analyst Connect 2009 conference in Stamford, Conn., IBM Senior Vice President and IBM Software Group Executive Steve Mills told me last night he thinks the Oracle-Sun deal will go through, but it won't necessarily be worth $9.50 a share to Oracle when it does.Complete Story »
Gary Gordon submits: The iShares DJ Telecom Fund (IYZ) has been one of the weaker performers over the last 6 months. Indeed, it’s been a bit of an underachiever throughout 2009 with a 14.3% total return. Vanguard Telecom (VOX) has been a little stronger with a total YTD return of 18.4%. In any other year, one might be thrilled by the double-digit percentages. Yet the vast majority of sector investments have outpaced telecom. Even the stock ETF benchmarks — S&P 500 (SPY) , Nasdaq 100 (QQQQ), Dow (DIA) — have all experienced 21%+ through 11/16.Complete Story »
